by Bernie Lopez
It is hard to believe that we are embarking on a full-blown war based on an accidental encounter between soldiers and rebels, on mistaken ‘intelligence data’ that Fr. Bossi was in Basilan, as the military admitted. It is even harder to believe that this will nullify billions of pesos that donor countries and investors have poured into Mindanao in a decade. Canada and Japan and the World Bank expressed alarm, making GMA defer the full scale invasion. I echo the appeal of hundreds of Mindanao institutions appealing for GMA to consider losing dollars to save cents in terms of investments and lives.
The generals are itching for war. DND Secretary Norberto Gonzalez said, "We are a sovereign country", hinting that the government, while appreciating the concern, will ignore the pleas of donor countries. The generals seeking reprisals prevail. The signal for 'Task Force Thunder' is on.
The military admitted that the beheading might have been a reprisal for an accidental encounter in a known MILF lair in Ginanta, Basilan between the 1st Marine Brigade and rebels a week before. An MILF spokesman said the military did not follow peace protocol agreed upon of clearing their presence in the area. Of course, there are nervous fingers on both sides when large forces accidentally come into contact. In the mis-encounter, the son of a known Abu Sayyaf leader was allegedly shot in the mouth. Two other rebel leaders were killed. If we take the word of the MILF, who admitted they ambushed the soldiers but denied they beheaded the soldiers, it could mean they were beheaded after they had been killed in blind rage after the conflict. The military argues that beheading is the ‘signature’ of the Abu Sayyaf, citing several incidents in the last five years. These are all allegations on both sides. That is why a fact finding mission is important.
A fact-finding missions was sent by the Joint Coordinating Council on Cessation of Hostilities (JCCCH), which has representatives from both sides, but their 3-day deadline lapsed. The mission had difficulty extracting data from witnesses who were naturally afraid to talk. With the impasse on finding out what really happened, the military is now rattling its saber on a ‘limited police action’. An invasion of 5,000 soldiers is hardly ‘limited’. Ironically, they want to serve a warrant on the 113 identified suspects. Warrants are for courts, not for war. If you have an army behind you, you are not serving a warrant, you are conducting all-out war. There will be no legal due-process for the 113 suspects, if they indeed participated in the beheading.
Of course, it is understandable how the military feels when their soldiers were beheaded. Of course, we have to condemn such atrocious acts and seek justice. But catching them is different from pure vengeance. A full scale invasion of Basilan by 5,000 soldiers to catch eight leaders of a band of 113 identified rebels seems more like vendetta than the search for justice. Aside from the 5,000, more troops are pouring into Basilan from the ARMM. GMA ordered the emergency acquisition of mortars and ammunition. In reply to Esperon's warning of a Basilan invasion, the MILF sent mixed signals of valor and fear. MILF spokesman Sattar Ali said, "We will defend our territory to our last breath". But at the JCCCH, the MILF representative said the MILF was willing to give concessions if only to avert the war. For sure however, the MILF will never surrender arms.
‘D-day’ is for disaster not so much for soldiers or rebels but for innocent civilians caught in the crossfire. The town of Albarka where the beheadings occurred are mostly ghost barangays now as residents evacuate in fear of the invasion. This early, there are fresh reports of health problems in evacuation sites.
General Hermogenes Esperon says, "The more we allow this to pass without getting (them) punished, we will be encouraging more beheading." The point of the full scale war is to teach others a lesson. But the socio-economic cost dwarfs by ten fold this expected military goal.
Such a massive invasion will necessarily have civilian casualties and trigger MILF reprisals across the entire Mindanao. It is not a case of an isolated conflict. If the MILF gets a terrible beating in their Basilan lairs, it may decide to escalate and conduct reprisals from Jolo to Zamboanga to Lanao del Norte. In other words, we are headed for a full blown war similar to what Marcos waged in the seventies. There will be more bombings of buses and marketplaces not immediately but in the next few years. The New People's Army in Mindanao may just create a 'war on two fronts' to complicate matters.
Mindanao has been the focus of development and investment funds from abroad in the last ten years because it is considered as the country’s emerging economic hub. Infrastructure development goes on at a feverish pace - roads, dams, piers, airports. The resources of Mindanao are intact and have hardly been tapped and its vast tracts of lands are waiting for development.
It is the primary target of the mining industry, new agribusiness initiatives, socio-economic projects. Perfect timing! After a decade of preparations and billions spent, all these developments plans and investments may be neutralized by an escalated war emanating from the Basilan offensive. GMA and Esperon are obsessed with catching a handful of vicious culprits and are blind to large scale consequences.
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