CHINA'S INTERNET POLITICS

by Bernie Lopez

 

There are two opposing forces in China's Internet milieu, the Internet Yin and Yang. On one side is the tremendous growth of users. On the other is growing government Internet censorship. The final victor in this battle is not known, but one has to give in.

 

China has edged out the US as the number one in the volume of Internet users with 220 million surfers as opposed to the US 217 million as of late February. Of course, one can question these figures, which come from a Chinese research group, the BDA China. Also, the difference is so small that they are virtually at par, if the figures are correct.

 

In tandem with this growth is China's policy to control Internet information going out to the outside world, especially the Tibetan protests. It has asked video sharing sites like the Youtube to block these outgoing gory human rights violations by Chinese police and soldiers. Youtube, of course, simply smiled. It knows that its business is based on the principle of freedom of communication and information. If it blocks itself, it is global suicide, and rivals will emerge to replace it.

 

In frustration over trying to control the video sites, it is taking things into its own hands to block these outgoing citizen journalism on its own, by trying to locate the origins. So far, if you assess what you can see in Blogger.com and Youtube.com, which in turn is picked up CNN-BBC-Aljazeera, you can say the Chinese are not very successful because a lot of cellphone videos of actual massacres are being aired.

 

The sheer volume of the growing cellphone-backed citizen journalists in China defies control, as it did in the Burma unrest, the London bombings, and the blog journalists inside Iraq. If the users are growing, so are these ubiquitous electronic journalist. Two other factors make China's Internet control impossible. First, there are proxy servers that do not reveal the IP address of the original senders. Second, the advent and proliferation of satellite-linked mobile units means they would have sent their 'deadly' materials out to the world before they are caught, if they are caught.

 

The bottom line is - China will always fail miserably in its Internet politics of controlling information. The other alternative is to abolish Internet altogether in China, which is the greater evil of economic isolation and suicide, and which China will never do.

 

But there is a dark side to Internet journalism. Total information freedom 'they say' is simply 'licentiousness', meaning, if you can send out critical clandestine information that can pressure nations to stop their massacres, you can also send misinformation to destroy people and nations. For every advantage is a disadvantage, for every good an evil. So what else is new?

THE POLITICS OF RICE

 

With world rice supply waning a bit (nothing to panic about) and prices inching up, GMA fears the politics of rice might lower her popularity from negative ten to negative twenty. So she has decided to run after the rice hoarders, headed by the Binondo boys. These hoarders have some clout. So she has to be careful. For one, if she plans to have a 'rerun' in 2010, these people are critical sources of funds during election period.

 

The hoarders’ clandestine partnership with NFA officials has been an open secret for decades now. They hit the papers only during a rice crisis, such as now. The modus operandi is obvious. NFA gets cheap subsidized rice which is passed on to the hoarders and sold as expensive commercial rice. And they split the booty. This is why NFA Director Rogelio Macunay recently sacked NFA North Cotabato manager Anthony Bernad. But that is under the bridge. We wonder how many thousand tons of rice nationwide are sold to consumers this way.

 

The short-term shortage is two fold. First, climate change has triggered rampant floods in rice-producing nations. Second, Thailand, largest exporter worldwide, has cutback exports by 30% to insure domestic supply. This can worsen or taper off. Nobody knows.

 

The move of the government to buy more than its target of 2.2 million metric tons (MMT) at double the prices of last year not so much to correct shortages in 2008 but more in preparation for perceived shortages in 2009 may be a good or bad move. It is good if supplies stabilize and prices go down. It is bad if oversupply from overbuying will lower prices, invite hoarding, and strengthen the NFA-hoarder partnership.

 

The politics of rice is complex. In a real crisis, the issue is food security. But in a non-crisis or a pseudo-crisis, it begins to enter the dangerous arena of election financing. So what else is new?

BARACK VERSUS HILLARY

 

This is a Third World perspective. First, American politics is it is just as dirty as Philippine politics. They sling mud just as well as we do. Second, Barack and Hillary are the same banana. America foreign policy will not change. They will still stay in Iraq. They will remain the biggest arms seller worldwide, and use Israel as a wedge against the oil-rich Arab world. Dollar hegemony will persist. Their multinationals will bribe Third World government officials and proliferate genetic engineered crops. The US-dominated World Bank-IMF will still give loans conditional to American interests. They will still control the US-dominated UN Security Council. So what else is new?

beteljuice7@gmail.com 

 

THE FRAPORT FACTOR

By Bernie Lopez

 

In spite of massive efforts from the GMA administration to have NAIA 3 opened before the election, it did not materialize. A source in the construction contractor community claims that the real reason, aside from the substandard construction which is the predominant issue at hand, is that Fraport, after all the squabbles, pulled out the software for the highly computerized airport system, and there are no ready replacements.

If this is true, it may mean we have to retool the building in terms of hardware on a massive and expensive scale and get a new corresponding software in order to begin to operate, over and above the issue of unsafe substandard construction. If we are to purchase new software, it has to fit the hardware at hand. This means additional time and money.

Now that Fraport lost its case at the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes ICSID in Washington DC, clearly, it is a major character in this sinister mystery story. Fraport can still derail and delay the opening of NAIA 3 because it feels it has not been properly compensated. It is important then to paint a clearer picture of Fraport, over and above the many information featured in this column in the past. A new white paper has emerged recently from sources in Germany, which has intimate knowledge of Fraport’s history and modus operandi, and has reached the Philippine print media. This paper, which is the source for this article, includes excerpts from intimate minutes of stockholders’ meeting which Fraport tried so hard to keep away from the German media, arguing in the courts that the contracts had a confidentiality clause.

Fraport is first of all a government-owned corporation (79%), and as such, is open to public corruption and political forces. This government equity is divided into three parts, the largest share to the State of Hesse (32%), the next to the City of Frankfurt (21%), and to the Federal Republic of Germany (18%). Prime Minister Roland Koch of Hesse resigned as chair of Fraport board days before the 2004 stockholder meeting under extreme pressure over the controversy on the NAIA 3 project. Actually, Fraport is ultimately owned by the people of Germany as taxpayers. The Fraport board played a key role in the expose of the ‘crimes’ of management and its supervisory board, which was under the helm of CEO Wilhelm Bender.

The modus vivendi of Fraport with regards big projects abroad which incurred huge losses was one of the most powerful tool of the guilty, namely, silence or plain and simple cover-up of data which would incriminate people at the echelon. This was true not only for NAIA 3 but other controversial projects in Germany itself, Peru, Uzbekistan and Mexico, to name some, which totaled about half a billion Euros in the past few years, according to the white paper. For this subtle silence or sin of omission, Fraport employs many law firms at huge expense.

When CEO Bender presented the figures for NAIA 3 in the stockholders’ meeting, he was met with a barrage of violent objections against the loss of $490 million. Bender blamed the Philippine government for violating its own laws. Subsequent protests over NAIA 3 argued that Fraport was in fact a partner in crime in the dealings over NAIA 3, whether of no choice of its own, or with premeditated complicity. The board accused management of releasing funds without sufficient collaterals and participation in management planning and decisions. It asked why Fraport did not even have the right to examine the books of PIATCO, its investment partner in the NAIA 3 project, when in fact Fraport contributed more than 61% of capital and 90% of the funds. And PIATCO claimed it owned 60% of the consortium together with local partners, since the law required foreign investment not to exceed 40\5. In other words, Fraport was the bag man in reality but not on paper. Bender told the board that Fraport may not be able to recover its investments in NAIA 3.

Fraport was hoping that the change of President from Erap to GMA in 2004 would save the day for its investments. Former chair Koch had known much earlier of the criticisms of then Vice President Arroyo about the way Fraport did business in the Philippines. Bender told the Fraport board another $90 million was needed to complete NAIA 3. This was followed by threats from the Philippnie government to demand damages for the delayed NAIA 3 project.

By this time, the board, incensed by Fraport’s helplessness to solve the single biggest loss in NAIA 3 among all its projects abroad, filed a case at the Regional Court of Frankfort to exonerate management for its bad decisions. But the court ruled in favor of management, a victory which would double the ire of the board. The Hess state government, which held the greatest amount of shares in Fraport, ordered a committee to conduct an investigation of the ‘Fraport Manila Scandal’.

Fraport, in spite of its defeat at ICSID, and in spite of the corruption scandal in Germany, still has the ability to derail the NAIA 3 project today. It will do everything in its power to rectify its losses somehow because of pressures from the German public. But it may finally just close shop because of the billions on overseas losses.

beteljuice7@gmail.com 

 

SURVEYS AS A POLITICAL TOOL

by Bernie Lopez

 

On the third week of July, headlines screamed in many dailies how hunger had declined significantly according to an SWS survey. The survey had a sampling of 1,200. The conclusion was that 2.6 million households had nothing to eat this quarter compared to 3.4 last quarter or 23%. The 'decrease' was welcomed by Malacanang as proof of its 'success' to mitigate hunger. Howver, any high school student can see such microscopic sampling leading to macroscopic conclusions are absurd.

 

The June 27-30 SWS survey showed that 14.7% of the 1,200 household respondents experienced hunger, down from 19% last February and November. Then the mile-wide leap was made, a conclusion based on this meager sampling of 1,200 that 2.6 million households had nothing to eat at least once during the quarter period.

The survey goes on to show that hunger in Metro Manila was much higher at 22%, but then it clarifies that this was due to a higher margin of error from a smaller sampling of 300. By simple ratio, a sampling of 300 for Metro-Manila's 7 million is bigger than the 1,200 for the nation's 7 million. Both samplings represent a miniscule cross section of millions. In other words, the survey is inconclusive. In philosophy, they call it 'non sequitur', it does not follow.

 

In his new column, Mahar Mangahas of SWS is protesting against the ban on surveys. Of course, he owns SWS. If surveys mislead and deceive rather than inform, then the ban should stay in place. SWS has a following from the opposition when its election surveys favored the GO over the TU. Commissioned surveys, especially during election, should also be banned as a conflict of interest. If you do not please your client, you may not get paid. That is the way people will look at commissioned surveys.

 

GMA earlier criticized SWS survey methodology in its hunger statistics because it yielded negative PR for government. A similar government survey had a better sampling of 12,857, more than ten times the SWS sampling, but even this was not enough to lead to conclusions about 70 million Filipinos.

 

Surveys are an inexact science for several reasons. De La Salle economist Michael Alba says "these are just guesses, although done in a scientific manner". First, a nation of millions with a complex concentration of poor scattered across urban and rural pockets defies any sampling ratio and methodology, as explained. Second, hunger is a very subjective term which respondents can easily pass mistaken judgement on. There are wide gray areas between total, moderate and severe hunger, the categories used by the government. Third is conflict of interest. A government should not make surveys that impacts on its image. Independent surveys are more reliable but if they are truly independent.

 

Even if we assume that there was no effort on the part of SWS to please GMA in the sudden turn around in its latest hunger survey, which was not commissioned, still there is a need to somehow come up with criteria on the independent character of surveys. The potential to manipulate is always there. First is selection. If you interview less poor households, hunger trends go down. Second is reliability. Can survey people just invent their data and let people sign a piece of paper that they were interviewed? Third is geographic selection. Poor provinces will yield more hungry people.

REMOVE VAT TO DISPEL HUNGER.

 

The two basic variables to hunger incidence are food prices and employment. Higher GDP has nothing to do with mitigating hunger because of the rich-poor gap. Right now, food prices have been consistently rising faster and higher than salaries in the last few years, if there is a salary to talk about. The impact of VAT on basic food is awesome since you need gasoline which has a VAT to transport food anywhere. There is also double and triple taxation since you tax certain agricultural inputs. In other words, the government, in its obsession for higher tax revenues, is inducing the very hunger it is trying to mitigate. If you compare what GMA spends for hunger (P1.65 billion for a nationwide feeding program), you will note that this is a drop in the bucket compared to the tens of billions the government is raking in silently from VAT. The government's "community-based food production program in Metro-Manila is peripheral and has little impact and is simply a PR game.

 

The best hunger mitigation program is to remove VAT on gasoline, whose global price is rising phenomenally the past few months. Surveys are just a 'game' politicians play. They are part of a face-lifting effort, a PR tool, a way to please the hungry, so they do not protest.

GMA can cancel the feeding program, which is a dole out anyway that induces more dependence, and simply remove the VAT on oil. To stave off hunger, give the fisherman a rod not a fish, and the farmer a plow not a sack of rice. That way, we can easily conquer hunger and poverty.

beteljuice7@gmail.com 

MEDIA MERALCO’s ILLUSION

By Bernie Lopez

Since Meralco VP Elpi Cuna never answered my dare for him to face Pete Ilagan of NASECORE the electric consumer advocate, on the issue of Meralco overcharges of P2 billion (he replied to the letter but not to the dare), let me bring the mountain (Ilagan) to Mohamed (Cuna) through this column. The issue – Media Meralco is accused of deception and illusion by increasing generation charge and systems loss previous to decreasing it to give an illusion of a ‘decrease’. Inquirer headlines screamed “Meralco cuts rates by P0.43 kwh (kilowatt-hour)” when they actually increased it.

So let me quote Pete Ilagan’s letter at length, “Dear Bernie, here are the facts (Inquirer banner story) – 1) generation charge will go down by P0.3786/kwh, 2) system loss charge will decline by P0.0508/kwh, 3) The July generation charge was P5.67/kwh, 4) The July System Loss charge was P0.90/kwh, 5) The August generation charge will be down to P5.2978/kwh, 6) The August System Loss Charge will be down P0.8479/kwh, 7) Napocor rate fell by P0.45/kWh so its average rate is now P5.19/kwh, meaning it used to be P5.64/kwh, 8) Meralco's IPP rates also went down by P0.31/kWh so its down to P4.03/kwh, meaning it used to be P4.34/kwh.

“First, the story failed to cite that the June generation rate was P4.42/kwh so the July rate of P5.67/kWh applied an INCREASE of P1.25/kWh. (THIS WAS NOT BANNERED IN ANY MAJOR NEWSPAPER LAST MONTH). So, even if Meralco cuts down by P0.37/kwh here (P1.25 - 0.3786 = P0.8714/kWh), they will still enjoy an INCREASE of P0.8714/kwh IN THE GENERATION CHARGE in its August billing based on its June rate of P4.42/kwh. ERC gave Meralco a provisional increase of P0.26/kwh in the previous months so it is still (P0.8714 less P0.2692= P0.60/kWh) P0.60/kWh higher.

“Second, the story also failed to cite the June system loss charge of P0.72/kWh (pls check your June and July Billing) so the July rate of P0.90/kWh (P0.72 +0.18) applied an increase of P0.18/kWh. So, even if Meralco cuts down its system loss charge by P0.0508/kWh, it will still enjoy a P0.12/kwh INCREASE in the system loss charge in its August billing. The provisional increase in the system loss charge in the previous months was only P0.07/kWh.

“Third, prior to the commercial operation of the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market WESM) in July 2006, the GENERATION CHARGE that appeared in our Meralco July Billing was P5.21/kWh. The ERC-approved NAPOCOR RATE rate then was P4.93/kwh. This only shows that Meralco IPP rates where higher than P5.21/kWh.

“Using their own announced figures, let's ADD the Napocor's rate of P5.19/kWh and Meralco IPPs' rate of P4.03/kWh and we will arrive at an average rate of P4.61/kWh. This should be then the GENERATION RATE Meralco should be charging us for August AND NOT the P5.27/kwh it announced. The rate given them by ERC prior to the restoration of the automatic recovery adjustment. ERC's provisional approval on GENERATION adjustment recovery(power purchased) was P0.2692. Add this to the basic charge of P4.4296, we were charged then P4.69/kWh. Now, that we have allowed Meralco's announced figures and the figures from our Meralco June and July 2007 bills to speak for themselves, let's ask ourselves if this Meralco-announced rate reduction is something to rejoice about? Let's pray that Meralco may learn to put off falsehood so it may learn to tell the truth.” Signed, Pete Ilagan, NASECORE.

Pete’s letter clearly shows that Meralco is buying power from its affiliate at higher rates, a blatant and unethical conflict of interest wherein the general public, or the electric consumers are at the raw end of the deal.

All the expensive budget of Media Meralco to sway and please the public will not work. Truth shall prevail and it will save us all from Media Meralco’s deception, as hinted by Pete Ilagan’s letter. To turn around and say a decrease is an increase is very creative PR, but truth shall prevail somehow to save the consumer from a partnership of government (ERC) and the private sector (Meralco).

In a letter to Rep. Conrado Albano Jr., chair of the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), Pete Ilagan writes, “Except for the month of October 2004, all the monthly generation charges show that the Meralco electric bill had been higher than the ERC-approved NPC rates since March 2003 when the ERC decision on Meralco’s unbundled rate came out. We are, therefore, calling the attention of (ERC) to enforce the said WESM Dispatch Protocol so that its mandate of ensuring consumer protection may have life lest it become a mere lip service to the continued detriment of the captive residential consumers.”

Not conforming to the ERC-approved rates is illegal. It can be the basis of future refunds that the courts can impose on Meralco for breaking the law. Why is Meralco so brave to not follow ERC decisions? You tell me.

Herman Laurel of the Tribune, on August 8, explains that the Inquirer banner story was “damage control and counter attack with lies” orchestrated by Media Meralco because journalists and broadcasters cited “Meralco’s power abuse” by “deliberately omitting the facts”.

Until the day Mr. Elpi Cuna and Meralco face the public squarely, the deception orchestrated by Media Meralco will one day boomerang. Meralco’s ultimate folly is its ability to mix politics and business, today’s deluge, tomorrow’s drought.

beteljuice7@gmail.com

PRAYING FOR BOTH SIDES

By Bernie Lopez

 

I got a text message requesting for prayers for the Koreans hostaged by the Taliban in Afghanistan. Why can we not pray for both side? Prior to the hostage taking, American forces running after the Talibans mistakenly killed innocent civilians using their ‘sophisticated’ ‘high-precision’ missiles. The hostage taking was precipitated by that massacre. If we will pray for Christians, we must also pray for Muslims who are both victims of war. We can take sides in a war but we cannot take sides when it comes to human lives.

It is so easy to see the sins of others against us and to be insensitive to our sins against others. It is so easy to cry out for justice (we hope it is not vengeance) and forget the injustice we have done. The killing of innocent Afghans mistakenly by American forces was featured in the Western press quickly for one day. The subsequent incident of Koreans hostaged by the Talibans was a major news featured daily. They interviewed the families of the hostages in tears lengthily but they did not interview the families of the victims of the American bombings. They failed to relate the two incidents, that one was in retaliation for the other. This type of journalistic reporting twists our perspective. We do not realize that many times the sins we do yesterday caused the sins done to us today. We see only their sins and forget ours.

American forces arrested five Iranian diplomats, whom they called ‘terrorists’ from a consulate in northern Iraq. The Western press, biased for the Americans, but trying hard to be journalistically fair, featured the incident once in the news very briefly and considered it a minor news. In retaliation, the Iranians held 15 British navy personnel in waters near the Iraqi border. The Western press featured the incident as a major news daily for a week.

CNN, BBC, Fox News and the news agency AP, AFP, and Reuters allotted a lot of time and space on the incident. They interviewed the families of the detained British, playing on the human drama of wives in tears which showed the Iranians as ‘evil’ and inhuman. But they did not interview the families of the detained Iranians. In the first incident, they featured the Americans as ‘soldiers’ arresting ‘terrorists’, which was justified. In the second incident, they featured the Iranians as ‘terrorists’ capturing ‘hostages’, which was an atrocity.

If you ask these journalists in the Western press, they do not even know they are doing something un-journalistic. It is the most natural way to do things. There is an implicit subtle unavoidable bias inherent not only in journalism but in the world. The finger points not just to the Western press but to all of us. This is true also for the Iranian press, and for that matter all media of all nations. Everybody sees things only their own way or the way they want to. I guess it is natural for us to look at the ‘enemy’ this way and to look at ourselves that way. But why is it so hard to see through this type of subtle perspective where everything the enemy does is atrocious and everything we do is justified because of their atrocity?

In the beheading of soldiers in Basilan, what we saw instantly was the atrocities of the rebels. When later news emerged that the beheading was preceded by an ambush of soldiers looking for Fr. Bossi wherein the relatives of those who beheaded the soldiers were killed, then our perspective changed somewhat. These relatives were revered spiritual leaders. We do not justify the actions of the ‘beheaders’ but now we begin to understand their blind rage a little bit which lessens our own blind rage somewhat. Relating incidents as causes and effects is critical to get an unbiased perspective.

There are so many examples in relating the evils of the enemy today to the evils we do yesterday. 911 was caused by the presence of US troops in the Middle East which began a decade ago. The Russian move to bring missiles to Cuba was caused by the presence of US missiles in Poland a decade ago. The bombings of buses in Davao was caused by military attacks on Camp Abubakar a year ago which killed the families of rebels.

This is the strange thing about the practice of rebel camps. They are virtual towns. The rebels live with their families in the camps. Today, this is the danger we face. If the military launches an attack in Basilan, there is no choice but to kill innocent civilians because they are intertwined with the rebel forces. This type of killing triggers reprisals of bombings of buses, train stations and malls for the next five years. It is a vicious circle of violence that we and the rebels perpetrate.

Without a sense of history, we are myopic and blind to the reality of things. Sometimes, it is obvious and we see it. For example, the siege of the Red Mosque in Islamabad was followed by a series of suicide bombings almost daily a few days after. We can relate if the time frame is short. We must be historians if we are to see causes and effects and view the world fairly.

beteljuice7@gmail.com 

ARROYOCRACY!

by Bernie Lopez

 

If Marcelo del Pilar coined the word 'frailocracy', why can we not coin the word 'arroyocracy' - rule of the friars, rule of the Arroyos. With GMA's brother-in-law Iggy and son Mikey as chairs of the House Committees on Environment and Energy respectively, is it not then an apt term? There is a third relative, the second son Diosdado whom they have yet to decide where to put in, according to House Majority Floor Leader Arthur Defensor.

 

At first glance, it seems just part of the cabinet rigodon GMA is orchestrating for many possible strange reasons. But if you are sharp enough to discern a pattern, as Senator Pia Cayetano, Rep. Teddy Casino and POWER, a electric consumer group, hint in separate press statements, it all becomes crystal clear.

 

Everything is related to GMA's 'Marcosian' strategy for Malacanang to control juicy mining contracts. Event no. 1 – July 17, GMA appoints Heherson Alvarez chair of the government's Philippine Mining Developme Corp. (PDMC). Event no. 2 – July 18, GMA appoints trusted cohorts Angelo Reyes to the DOE and Lito Atienza to the DENR. Event no. 3 – on the same day, GMA signs EO 636 transferring PMDC from the clutches of the DENR to the Office of the President (OPS) for direct Malacanang control. Event no. 4 – in a few days, Iggy and Mikey are strategically appointed as chairs of the house committees on environment and energy. In one week, the strategy of control is sealed, air-tight, leak-proof and ominous.

 

Out of the horse’s mouth, the strategy is clear. Alvarez admits PMDC will take over previously-cancelled “65 non-performing mining tenements” involving 68,000 hectares and offer these to new investors. These were closed mainly due to protests from Local Governments or tribal communities through the National Commission on Indigenous People (NCIP). GMA's grand scheme is to neutralize all protest at all fronts and at all institutional and sectoral levels. This is the reason for Arroyocracy which will institute mechanisms for total control.

 

A DENR official who spoke on condition of anonymity said the transfer of PMDC to the OPS was “meant to facilitate coordination” between the OPS on one hand and LGUs and the NCIP on the other. They can stall mining initiatives. LGUs can impose a mining moratorium according to the Local Government Code. NCIP can issue 'certificates of precondition', a requirement for mining permits for both small and large scale mining. PMDC, under the direct hand of Malacanang through the OPS, can neutralize these two hurdles. The magic word is 'air-tight control'.

 

And so, investors will elbow each other and run straight to PMDC because of its special privilege of granting permits and its power to neutralize the democratic process in the issuance of mining permits over and above regulatory powers of the DENR. Of course, PMDC can ask for a cut or commission for facilitating everything for the investors. Everybody will be happy - the foreigners and the Arroyocracy, except the tribal people who will lose their lands and the Filipino people who will suffer their degraded environment.

 

This actually impinges on the jurisdiction of the Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) which has the mandate to issue mining permits. MGB head Horacio Ramos explains that MGB will still process the rest of the permits for the 2 million-odd hectares of mining applications nationwide, except that Malacanang has the right to process a select 65,000 hectares, the juicy ones that have been stalled by environmental protests.

 

Ramos admits that the PMDC under Malacanang insures funds since the OPS can easily draw funds from anywhere which cannot be squeezed out of DENR' P500 million annual budget. PMDC was formerly part of the Natural Resources Development Corp. chaired by the DENR Secretary.

 

It will not be a surprise if the Arroyocracy will use military power to suppress mining protests, especially since the NPA recently announced it will run after harmful mining projects. It is the excuse Malacanang is waiting for to justify the use of force in the mining sector. But making a war zone out of mining areas is not what the foreigners want, and may just, in the long term stay away, if they become the victims of kidnappings or are caught in the middle of the crossfire.

 

Senator Pio Cayetano warns that GMA's initiatives might put the PMDC above the law, above environment regulations of the DENR, and offer exemptions to PMDC-endorsed mining projects. Rep. Teddy Casino of Bayan Muna is less diplomatic, saying "(Iggy and Mikey) cannot exercise their oversight duty of checking abuses by the executive branch because they are related to the President." Blood is thicker than laws. Finally, the People Opposed to Warrantless Electricity Rates (POWER) expressed concern over having "the president's son chair such a crucial House committee, which is tasked with checking the misdeed of President Arroyo's appointees." (Inquirer July 12).

 

So everything is crystal clear. Malacanang controls environment regulations so it can give on a silver platter all the legal tools needed by the mining sector to suppress legitimate protests. It seems GMA's initiative has an illusion of a $2 billion income by year end and $10 billion annually if the mining boom revs up. That is if the NPA is not pitted against the AFP at the gates of the mining multinationals. Arroyocracy is all about vested money and power that can bring down the nation.

beteljuice7@gmail.com 

 

UNTIMELY ACCIDENTAL WAR

by Bernie Lopez

It is hard to believe that we are embarking on a full-blown war based on an accidental encounter between soldiers and rebels, on mistaken ‘intelligence data’ that Fr. Bossi was in Basilan, as the military admitted. It is even harder to believe that this will nullify billions of pesos that donor countries and investors have poured into Mindanao in a decade. Canada and Japan and the World Bank expressed alarm, making GMA defer the full scale invasion. I echo the appeal of hundreds of Mindanao institutions appealing for GMA to consider losing dollars to save cents in terms of investments and lives.

 

The generals are itching for war. DND Secretary Norberto Gonzalez said, "We are a sovereign country", hinting that the government, while appreciating the concern, will ignore the pleas of donor countries. The generals seeking reprisals prevail. The signal for 'Task Force Thunder' is on.

 

The military admitted that the beheading might have been a reprisal for an accidental encounter in a known MILF lair in Ginanta, Basilan between the 1^st Marine Brigade and rebels a week before. An MILF spokesman said the military did not follow peace protocol agreed upon of clearing their presence in the area. Of course, there are nervous fingers on both sides when large forces accidentally come into contact. In the mis-encounter, the son of a known Abu Sayyaf leader was allegedly shot in the mouth. Two other rebel leaders were killed. If we take the word of the MILF, who admitted they ambushed the soldiers but denied they beheaded the soldiers, it could mean they were beheaded after they had been killed in blind rage after the conflict. The military argues that beheading is the ‘signature’ of the Abu Sayyaf, citing several incidents in the last five years. These are all allegations on both sides. That is why a fact finding mission is important.

 

A fact-finding missions was sent by the Joint Coordinating Council on Cessation of Hostilities (JCCCH), which has representatives from both sides, but their 3-day deadline lapsed. The mission had difficulty extracting data from witnesses who were naturally afraid to talk. With the impasse on finding out what really happened, the military is now rattling its saber on a ‘limited police action’. An invasion of 5,000 soldiers is hardly ‘limited’. Ironically, they want to serve a warrant on the 113 identified suspects. Warrants are for courts, not for war. If you have an army behind you, you are not serving a warrant, you are conducting all-out war. There will be no legal due-process for the 113 suspects, if they indeed participated in the beheading.

 

Of course, it is understandable how the military feels when their soldiers were beheaded. Of course, we have to condemn such atrocious acts and seek justice. But catching them is different from pure vengeance. A full scale invasion of Basilan by 5,000 soldiers to catch eight leaders of a band of 113 identified rebels seems more like vendetta than the search for justice. Aside from the 5,000, more troops are pouring into Basilan from the ARMM. GMA ordered the emergency acquisition of mortars and ammunition. In reply to Esperon's warning of a Basilan invasion, the MILF sent mixed signals of valor and fear. MILF spokesman Sattar Ali said, "We will defend our territory to our last breath". But at the JCCCH, the MILF representative said the MILF was willing to give concessions if only to avert the war. For sure however, the MILF will never surrender arms.

 

‘D-day’ is for disaster not so much for soldiers or rebels but for innocent civilians caught in the crossfire. The town of Albarka where the beheadings occurred are mostly ghost barangays now as residents evacuate in fear of the invasion. This early, there are fresh reports of health problems in evacuation sites.

 

General Hermogenes Esperon says, "The more we allow this to pass without getting (them) punished, we will be encouraging more beheading." The point of the full scale war is to teach others a lesson. But the socio-economic cost dwarfs by ten fold this expected military goal.

 

Such a massive invasion will necessarily have civilian casualties and trigger MILF reprisals across the entire Mindanao. It is not a case of an isolated conflict. If the MILF gets a terrible beating in their Basilan lairs, it may decide to escalate and conduct reprisals from Jolo to Zamboanga to Lanao del Norte. In other words, we are headed for a full blown war similar to what Marcos waged in the seventies. There will be more bombings of buses and marketplaces not immediately but in the next few years. The New People's Army in Mindanao may just create a 'war on two fronts' to complicate matters.

 

Mindanao has been the focus of development and investment funds from abroad in the last ten years because it is considered as the country’s emerging economic hub. Infrastructure development goes on at a feverish pace - roads, dams, piers, airports. The resources of Mindanao are intact and have hardly been tapped and its vast tracts of lands are waiting for development.

 

It is the primary target of the mining industry, new agribusiness initiatives, socio-economic projects. Perfect timing! After a decade of preparations and billions spent, all these developments plans and investments may be neutralized by an escalated war emanating from the Basilan offensive. GMA and Esperon are obsessed with catching a handful of vicious culprits and are blind to large scale consequences.

beteljuice7@gmail.com 

 

BROWNOUTS DUE TO DROUGHT?

by Bernie Lopez

 

The news report read, "Brownouts in Luzon have already begun because the power generated by the hydroelectric plants has fallen." Instantly, I could smell a rat because hydro-energy in the Luzon grid is perhaps a fifth of total. Who is orchestrating this propaganda and why?

 

I called up a private-sector source to get a clearer picture for the general public. He agreed with me about smelling the same rat. Although the coal shortage was reported in passing the next day, still it was being downplayed for a reason. The discussion moved to Napocor as the suspect.

 

The notion of a coal shortage emerged in the first summer brownout this year. The Pagbilao coal plant was being 'rescued' with new sources of coal. Then coal supply from Masinloc was secretly being diverted to Sual, but it was too late, and so the brownout occurred. Part of the problem was Sual's pier could not handle big vessels, just barges. All this was hush-hush. Perhaps Napocor feared they would be blamed for the crisis and for mismanagement.

 

Although Napocor had a hand in the looming coal crisis, probably wrong management decisions, there are global forces that precipitated the coal shortage. Napocor had a supply contract from Australia. But noticing the high price, Napocor moved to China. But suddenly, China unilaterally abrogated its export commitments, for a reason. It needed the coal badly for its rapid economic boom. China's extreme appetite for not just coal but all types of energy was disrupting global supply. Napocor moved to Indonesia but it was too late. Prices climbed up to the high heavens.

 

The prices of energy, not just coal, started rising as far back as 2003. Supply was becoming tighter in oil and coal. Napocor had failures to get bid awards even before the move to Australia because of rising prices. Napocor was buying less and less at higher prices for a long period now. Napocor should not turn to secrecy. Transparency will make government and private sectors come to the rescue. The more they hide, they greater the blame on their management.

 

The problem in the Philippines is we have no nuclear energy alternative, so dependent on the more expensive oil and coal. We have five base power coal plants ('base' meaning operating 24 hours a day as opposed to hydro or wind energy) - Masinloc, Sual, Pagbilao, Semirara and Quezon, all Napocor managed except the Lopez's Quezon. All have capacities of about 500 megawatt each except Sual at 1,000. Total capacity is then about 3,500 to 4,000 megawatts.

 

Yet all of them are operating way below capacity because of the coal crunch, especially the biggest, Sual, operating now at less than half of capacity. Quezon is able to buy 75,000 metric tons a months, because it has a pier for large vessels and because it has a better credit name in the international market. But Meralco announced recently it was buying more energy from Napocor, hinting that even its affiliate Quezon coal plant may be delivering less power now.

 

My source says there are three reasons for the looming crisis in the Luzon grid - anitquated transmission lines, the coal and energy crunch, and Napocor mismanagement. My source is complaining why Napocor, to momentarily solve the problem, does not revive the many idle privately-owned diesel plants which were built during the Ramos era to solve the energy crisis.

 

The image of Napocor as a milking cow is an old story, but it keeps coming back when we get an energy crisis. Napocor had an outstanding debt of a whopping P1.3 trillion, enhancing its milking cow image, but the current new management reversed that. Napocor's liquidity improved because it was able to collect P35 billion a year from a one peso rate increase since 2004. With better finances, Napocor should be able to buy coal, that is, if the cow is no longer being milked.

 

It must be clarified that Malacanang is on top of energy purchases. In other countries, it is the government that rakes it in in terms of energy taxes, but here, my source says ‘taxes’ go to individuals in government rather than the government itself.

 

Napocor supplies 80% of nationwide energy needs. Napocor-owned plants supply 28% of the 80%. TRANSCO should not be the scapegoat in the looming crisis because they simply distribute power. The problem is, there is no power to distribute.

 

Right now, we do not have a 'forward position' in coal supply and we, like the jeepney drivers, depend on daily inflows. Before it was 'isang kahig isang tuka' (one scratch one bite) but now it is 'dalawang kahig isang tuka' (two scratches one bite). As usual, we operate by hind sight. We will address the crisis now because it is there. We were never proactive in energy sourcing since time immemorial, in spite of the many warnings from experts that by 2010, we will have huge energy gaps. It is only 2007 now.

 

We need nuclear energy badly, not considering environmental cost. All industrialized countries have nuclear energy. We cannot be enslaved to expensive imported coal and oil alone. Our hydros need to be expanded. We need new alternative sources of energy not now but yesterday. And it seems the crisis has fallen on the lap of a green horn. Poor Angie Reyes.

beteljuice7@gmail.com